The bugle of elections has been sounded and the campaign to capture power has started. There is an increase of 11.5% in the strength of the Electorate and a significantly larger number of candidates are conrtesting, compared to the 2019 Elections. There are two broad allainces, the National Democratic Alliance led by the BJP and the Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance the I. N. D. I Alliance. Rahul Gandhi, though not the declared leader, is the public face of this motely crowd.
Let us start with the I. N. D, I Alliance. The grouping is riven with personalitiy clashes and strong anti incumbancy wave in the two major states ruled by components of the Alliance: West Bengal and Karnataka. In Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the NDA is mounting a serious challenge but both the DMK and the CPM have deep roots and so there is only limited hope of BJP gaining a strong posse of seats. I expect asround 6 to 12 seats for the NDA from both these states together. In Karnataka and in West Bengal the BJP is slated to do well. The campaign of Rahul Gandhi is proving to be a huge embarassment to his Alliance. His statement against Sakthi has not gone down well and he has not mastered the art of political rhetoric which even ordinary members of the BJP have total command over. The seats for the INDI Alliance will not increase and Congress numbers may even fall. Except Punjab where the APP will getr the majority of the seats, the INDI Alliance is on a stricky wicket everywhere else in the country.
What are the issues before the Electorate: Governance, Internal Security, Economy, Infrastructure and Employment. On all these issue, except employment the Government has performed well. Governance has remained more or less corruption free and there are no major scandals, financial or otherwise, affecting the credibility of the BJP. The Electoral Bonds which the Congress has tried to portray as "Licensed Corruption" was introduced to check the role of unaccounted money in the electoral process. The very fact that the electoral bonds could be traced back to the original donor is proof of the good faith in which the Government acted. Unfortunately the Government of India has to contend with a unified Opposition and a hyperactive Judiciary which struck down the Electoral Bond Scheme. It will be reintroduced after the General Elections. And a major slew of reforms of the judiciary including the judges appointing judges system that is in vogue today will ne introduced. The CAA has finally been passed and except for some organized identity groups, there is hope that Citizenship will be rolled out to the minorities in Pakistan. There have been some tension with regard to Center-State Relations. Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal have refused to cooperate with the Centre on sensitive issues pertaining to transnational crime. I expect the next Government to define Law and Order which have been left by the Constitution to the Statesmore precisely. The Indian Economy has been growing at an average of 8% and the World Bank and IMF expect this trend to continue. Unfortunately this is largely growth without employment as the only jobs available to the younger generation are in the gig economy. India has seen a phenomenal growth in terms of Infrastructure and the investment in Ports, Railways and Highways will continue. In fact the impressive economic growth figures of India comes from Infrastructural growth.
Given the track record of Governance, Internal Security and Economy I expect Narendra Modi to make a clean sweep in the forthcoming elections. I have not been wrong in my electoral prediction so far and I venture to state that the BJP will win between 334 to 354 seats. give or take a few. The 400+ that the leadership talks of is hype. Unless South India makes a complete U turn in its politics, this number is not possible. And South India has outlawed miracles.
All in all a BJP led Government seems probable. Apart from the Electoral Bonds and the Arvind Khejriwal arrest and imprisonment the Government has not taken any major misstep. The Liquor Policy Scam in which Kavitha the daughter of K C Rao, the former CM of Telengana and Manish Sisodia and of course now, the Chief Minister od Delhi figure as accused, is only fizz in a beer bottle. It will be impossible for the ED to prove the case in court and this makes me suspect that political motives are behind this strategy. If the Cabinet is guilty of making the decision why is the LT. Gov of Delhi who signed off on the policy not make part of the conspiracy.
India is facing serious challenges in the neighborhood. The tensions in West Asia are increasing and the war in Ukraine though is winding down is showing no sign of approaching peace. Tensions with China will continue as India maintains a strong and aggressive posture.
